The buzz in the Climate Change news is that the five hottest days in the last 100,000 years all happened last week, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

You can read an article about it from Forbes:

The Fourth of July was the hottest day on Earth in as many as 125,000 years—breaking a record set the day before—as the return of the El Niño weather pattern collides with soaring temperatures at the start of summer, researchers say.

Now, first off let’s be clear – we haven’t had the “7 the hottest days”  in the last 100,000 years since July 4…

…or, more accurately, there is absolutely no way for anyone to reliably know if we have or not.

Actually think about what they’re saying when they make this claim.

They are claiming that they know, for a fact, the global average temperature to two decimal points over the last 36 million days.

Couple of things to bear in mind here before we go any further.

1 – Humans have only had the ability to accurately measure the temperature of anything for maybe four-hundred years.

2 – Official “global temperature” records only began in 1880.

3 – Beyond  that point we only have partial, local and pretty inaccurate readings back to the mid-17th century.

That’s 400 years, give or take.

So, how do climatologists get the data for the other 99,600 years?

Well – they  guess.

Sorry, they “model”, using tree ring data and ice core samples.

NASA claims by comparing modern tree rings from known weather systems they can figure out the weather patterns that created tree rings in the past.

This is not scientific, it is interpretive.

A tree ring represents a growth cycle, that is all. The factors which affect that growth – specific to the individual tree, the local area or on a global level – are far too complicated for them to have any kind of predictive value.

Disease, volcanic activity, competition from other trees, rainfall, solar activity, parasitic insect or fungal infection…we can’t accurately account for any of these factors, and they all impact tree growth.

In short, all a tree ring can tell you is the length of a growth cycle. Everything else is extrapolation and modelling based on nothing but an a priori assumption of causation.

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